2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan

The Capital Area and the Durham Chapel-Hill Carrboro MPOs are coordinating to develop the 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) for the Triangle region. The MTP is the long-range plan for transportation improvements across the region. It will include roadway, transit, rail, bicycle, pedestrian and other transportation projects to be implemented through the year 2050. 

Where are we in the process?

The MPO staff has begun development of updated draft scenario alternatives for the 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (2050 MTP/CTP). The first of these scenarios is known as the Deficiency Analysis. With the MPO’s Goals and Objectives in mind, staff will use the following deficiency data to create several alternatives to meet anticipated future travel demand. This Alternatives Analysis is the next step after the current Deficiency Analysis in the development of the 2050 MTP and will be released in the coming months.

Visit the MTP Development webpage for more detail on the overall process.

Deficiency Analysis

A Deficiency Analysis compares today’s travel conditions with that of a future year. It shows staff, the MPO Executive Board and the broader community where transportation investments in highways, transit and other modes are needed to address the future mobility demands. It helps to set a baseline that is used in the development and evaluation of the various transportation alternatives that will be considered in a subsequent step of the 2050 MTP development. 

Results & Maps

Travel Times - Current Conditions (2016)

Travel Times - 2050 Forecast - Existing Conditions + Committed Projects

Congestion "Tomato Maps" - Current Conditions (2016)

Congestion "Tomato Maps" - 2050 Forecast - Existing Conditions + Committed Projects

Background on Deficiency Analysis

Years used in Analysis

The measures and maps are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions in two different years: 

  • 2016 - This is 2016 population and employment using the existing transportation system of streets, transit, etc., and reflects the current travel conditions. In some cases, the year 2015 has been used for the base year. 
  • 2050 Existing + Committed (E+C) - This is the estimated growth in population and employment through the year 2050 but using the existing transportation system plus any projects that are committed to construction or implementation.  While somewhat unrealistic, it does help set a baseline for evaluating future mobility investments.  This “no build” scenario allows us to see where future mobility deficiencies are to be expected. 

Congestion "Tomato Maps"

Congestion maps, commonly referred to as “Tomato Maps” are visualizations that depict levels of congestion on the roadway network.  These maps show the forecasted congestion on specific road segments and can show all day or specific times of day, typically CAMPO will show both peak period and off peak times for comparison.  These types of maps show a comparison of the anticipated volume to the designed capacity of the facility, also known as a “V/C ratio”.  This ratio is traffic volume divided by the traffic capacity of the road segment. (For example, a volume of 9,000 vehicles on a road that is capable of carrying 10,000 vehicles will produce a V/C of 0.9). 

More about the 2050 MTP Development Process

Learn more about the entire MTP development process, including the foundational work that occured for the 2050 MTP throughout 2020 (setting Goals & Objectives, developing Socio-Economic Guide totals).