2055 MTP Alternative Scenarios

View the Plans and Trends Scenario - Interactive Map

View the Shared Leadership Scenario - Interactive Map

View the All Together Scenario - Interactive Map

The Alternative Future Scenarios Phase is nearing completion. The following explains the process that took place during that phase of analysis.

Alternatives Analysis – What are our Future Needs?

To analyze future transportation investment choices, CAMPO follows a systematic process that begins with understanding how our communities’ plans work to guide their future growth. Community and regional planners, in partnership with NC State Demographer's Office forecast future population and job growth based on market conditions and trends, factors that influence development, and local transportation and land use plans.  Based on the forecasts, planners modelled mobility trends, future needs, and impacts on our transportation system to identify potential deficiencies and needs. This deficiency analysis highlights areas for future transportation investments in highways, transit, and other modes to address future mobility demands. It helps to set a baseline for the development and evaluation of the various  transportation alternatives to be considered in subsequent steps of the 2055 MTP development.

Learn more about the 2055 MTP's Deficiency Analysis, "The Baseline"

Alternatives Analysis – Evaluate Potential Solutions

Three (3) transportation system scenarios were developed and modeled.  Each modeled scenario was evaluated against performance measures tied to a set of eight (8) goals which were approved by the CAMPO and Triangle West TPO boards.  At the conclusion of the alternatives analysis, decisions regarding which scenario attributes to carry forward into a “preferred" plan (similar to a final draft) will be made.  Community input is a critical step in providing a public voice during the alternatives analysis phase and helps identify elements from the modeled scenarios that should be emphasized and carried forward into the “preferred” plan.

Public Engagement

Public engagement activities of the alternative analyses took place from mid April through late May 2025. This included sixteen (16) pop-up public information sessions, a robust online survey, and a public comment period. Results from the online survey are being synthesized and will be made available on this webpage soon.

Summary Table

Plans & Trends Scenario

The Plans & Trends Scenario represents the case of what is likely to occur without any changes to existing patterns of transportation funding and investment decisions or land use planning policies. It is created by merging the Community Plans development foundation with the Trend mobility investment foundation. This is the “simplest” alternative to implement, but that does not mean it is “easy” to achieve. This scenario assumes that we can rely on tried-and-true revenue streams and transportation/land use decision-making policies and procedures The first decade of funding and projects are taken from the current Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) for each MPO. 

What Years Are Analyzed?
The mobility network performance measures and maps displaying those measures are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions for three different horizon years: 2035, 2045 and the ultimate build out year of 2055 horizon year that will include all projects that can afford to be built based on trend level funding.

Land Use Assumptions
The future population and employment growth allocation in the region that will impact the transportation network is based on the future development patterns densities identified in adopted local land use plans. Potential Transit Choice Neighborhoods (TCNs) in multi-modal corridors throughout the region have been identified to receive a mixture of higher residential densities and employment space to support the increased transit services.

Highlighted Transportation Projects: Plans & Trends

  • Highway Investments:
    • Completion of Outer Loop
    • Widening/Improving I-40, I-440, US 401, US 1, US 64, US 70, NC 42, NC 50, NC 54, NC 55, NC 98
    • Smaller level of secondary roadway investments in second two decades
  • Transit Investments:
    • Extension of Downtown Cary/Garner Station Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service to include the Regional Transit Center in RTP and The Town of Clayton/Powhatan;
    • Addition of three BRT services (SAS Campus to Regency Park Corporation in Apex, Downtown Raleigh to North Hills and Downtown Raleigh to Triangle Town Center;
    • The extent of passenger rail will expand to the towns of Wake Forest and Mebane via the S-Line project
    • Addition of regional rail service (from RTC to Downtown Cary to Downtown Raleigh to Wake Forest)
    • Regional rail service will operate at a frequency of 4-0-4-0
    • Increased intercity passenger rail service (ie…Amtrak) from RUS to Downtown Cary to Downtown Durham to (4-2-4-2)
      • In this and other scenarios, the sequence of 4 numbers indicate the # of AM Peak-midday-PM peak-evening trains in each direction

Shared Leadership Scenario

The Shared Leadership scenario can be thought of as a stronger partnership between local governments and state and federal governments, emphasizing multi-modal investments in key corridors, which the scenario terms “Mobility Corridors.” It is created by combining the Opportunity Places development foundation with the Mobility Corridors investment foundation. Communities would reorient land use in specific places and ways to enable more sustainable and efficient travel, with an emphasis on linking equity-centered neighborhoods to major job hubs along the Mobility Corridors. State and federal governments would provide both more funding and more flexibility in the use of said funding to better reflect the priorities of the community. With the recent passage of the federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the federal government has provided an infusion of funds that is aligned with the Shared Leadership scenario. The NC F1RST Commission has recommended an analogous increase in state funding support and flexibility.

What Years Are Analyzed?
The mobility network performance measures and maps displaying those measures are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions for three different horizon years: 2035, 2045 and the ultimate build out year of 2055 that will include all projects that can afford to be built based on higher levels of funding investment compared to the Plans and Trends scenario.

Land Use Assumptions
The future population and employment growth allocation in the region that will impact the transportation network is based on the future development patterns densities identified in adopted local land use plans. Potential Transit Choice Neighborhoods (TCNs) in multi-modal corridors throughout the region have been identified to receive a mixture of higher residential densities and employment space to support the increased transit services. There is also a reduction in the number of employment trips to reflect recent patterns of remote/teleworking in the region.

Highlighted Transportation Projects: Shared Leadership

  • Highway Investments:
    • Same investments from the Plans and Trends Scenario
  • Transit Investments:
    • Same BRT investments from Plans and Trends
    • The extent of passenger rail same as Plans and Trends
    • The extent of regional rail will expand beyond scope of Plans and Trends to include termini at Apex and Garner.
    • Intercity passenger rail service will match Plans and Trends (4-2-4-2)
    • Regional rail service will operate at the same frequency as Plans and Trends (4-0-4-0), but the Shared Leadership scenario also includes a stop in the Town of Morrisville 

All Together Scenario 

The All Together scenario is the region’s most ambitious scenario. It is based on the same Opportunity Places development foundation as the Shared Leadership scenario, but also requires added flexibility in state revenue sources. This scenario further relies on increased local tax revenues in order to fund additional transit, active transportation, and complete street investments as outlined in the Complete Communities mobility investment foundation.

What Years Are Analyzed?
The mobility network performance measures and maps displaying those measures are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions for three different horizon years: 2035, 2045 and the ultimate build-out year of 2055 that will include all projects that can afford to be built based on higher levels of funding investment compared to the Shared Leadership scenario.

Land Use Assumptions
The future population and employment growth allocation in the region that will impact the transportation network is based on the future development pattern densities identified in adopted local land use plans with the following modifications:

  • Anchor institutions (universities) – increased asserted development
  • Mobility hubs – more intense, mixed-use development in ~2 dozen places; largely at previously identified “activity centers” in CommunityViz
  • Frequent transit corridors (Travel Choice Neighborhoods) – TOD development on developable parcels
  • Affordable housing opportunity sites – asserted “LIHTC-like” projects on undeveloped public land through GIS-based criteria

Highlighted Transportation Projects: All Together

  • Highway Investments:
    • Same investments from the Plans and Trends and Shared Leadership Scenarios with a higher level of secondary roadway investments in second two decades – this will require additional revenue assumptions compared to other scenarios
  • Transit Investments:
    • Same BRT investments from Plans and Trends and Shared Leadership
    • The extent of passenger rail is the same as in the Plans and Trends and Shared Leadership scenarios
    • Intercity passenger rail service will match Plans and Trends (4-2-4-2)
    • Regional rail service under the All Together scenario will operate at an expanded frequency of (6-2-6-2) as compared to the Plans and Trends (4-0-4-0) and Shared Leadership scenarios. The All Together scenario will also include the Town of Morrisville stop included in Shared Leadership. 
    • In Shared Leadership the extent of regional rail would expand beyond scope of Plans and Trends to include termini at Apex and Garner. In All Together these extents are extended:
      • Town of Wake Forest termini extended to the Town of Franklinton
      • Regional Transit Center termini in Research Triangle Park extended to the Town of Hillsborough
      • Town of Apex is extended to the massive future Veridea development
      • Town of Garner termini is extended to the Town of Selma

Visit the Maps & Data page for additional information on the analyses.