2055 MTP Deficiencies and Needs Analysis

A Deficiency Analysis compares today’s travel conditions with that of a future year. It shows staff, the MPO Executive Board and the broader community where transportation investments in highways, transit and other modes are needed to address the future mobility demands. It helps to set a baseline that is used in the development and evaluation of the various transportation alternatives that will be considered in a subsequent step of the 2055 MTP development. This year, CAMPO's GIS and Mapping team built a comprehensive and interactive mapping tool for exploring the data of the deficiency and needs scenario. This mapping tool includes some maps not included in the static PDF maps.  Please review the following chart to understand what maps you can access in the interactive map:

Results & Maps

Travel Times - Current Conditions (2020)

Travel Times - 2055 Forecast - Existing Conditions + Committed Projects

Congestion "Tomato Maps" - Current Conditions (2020)

Congestion "Tomato Maps" - 2055 Forecast - Existing Conditions + Committed Projects

Background on Deficiency Analysis

Years used in Analysis

The measures and maps are based on a travel demand model that estimates conditions in three different years:

  • 2020 Base Year - This is 2020 population and employment using the existing transportation system of streets, transit, etc., and reflects the current travel conditions. 
  • 2029 Existing + Committed - This is the 2029 transportation system of streets, transit, etc., and reflects the existing transportation system plus any projects committed to construction or implementation by 2029. 
  • 2055 Growth - This is the estimated growth in population and employment through the year 2055 that uses the Existing + Committed transportation system. While somewhat unrealistic, an analysis of 2055 projected growth and its impact on a transportation system committed to be built by 2029 does help set a baseline for evaluating future mobility investments. This “no build” scenario allows us to see where future mobility deficiencies are to be expected.

Analysis Visualization
The results of the deficiency analysis is reviewed across several metrics. Congestion and Travel Time are two ways our region looks at mobility for a scenario. A variety of visualization techniques are used to illustrate these mobility metrics:

Congestion “Tomato Maps”
Congestion maps, commonly referred to as “Tomato Maps” are visualizations that depict levels of congestion on the roadway network.  These maps show forecasted congestion on specific road segments and can show all day or specific times of day, typically CAMPO will show both peak period and off-peak times for comparison. These types of maps show a comparison of the anticipated volume to the designed capacity of the facility, also known as a “V/C ratio”. This ratio is traffic volume divided by the traffic capacity of the road segment. (For example, a volume of 9,000 vehicles on a road that is capable of carrying 10,000 vehicles will produce a V/C of 0.9).

Travel Time Maps
Travel time maps use isochrones, or “contours” to estimate the distance that can be traveled via travel “bands” of 20 minutes (0-20, 20-40, etc.). This analysis uses downtown Raleigh, downtown Durham and Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) to show travel time during peak periods in the Deficiency Analysis scenario and illustrates corridor and small area mobility.

What is the Next Step?

With the MPO’s Goals and Objectives in mind, staff will use the deficiency data to create several alternatives to meet the future travel demand. This Alternatives Analysis is the next step after Deficiency Analysis in the development of the 2055 MTP and will be released in the coming months.